Report from grain market: New crop sales halve year on year
25th June 2025
Sales of the 2025 crop have plummeted in recent months, as farmers held out while wheat prices languished at their lowest point for a year, Hectare Trading reports.
One factor driving down prices was an increase in wheat imports to 2.900Mt, according to AHDB, far higher than the five-year average of 1.856Mt.
While the proportion of new crop sales in the first quarter of this year was at a similar level to 2024, the second quarter has seen a marked decline in pre-harvest trading, falling from 42% of tonnes offered by farmers last year to just 20% this year.
Prices may currently be below many farmers’ costs of production, however, AHDB figures indicate that end-season wheat stocks will hit 2.937 Mt, well above the five-year average of 2.116 Mt.
Hectare Trading said that carrying the 2024 crop over to the new season without a locked-in price could be a high-risk strategy given market conditions.
READ MORE: AHDB’s latest planting and variety survey: ‘Growers had to fight the weather again’
Feed wheat prices at their lowest level
Spot feed wheat prices on Hectare Trading are now at their lowest levels in a year.
In the Midlands, the lowest price of the past year, £164/t, was reached in May 2025. This compares to a 12-month high of £194/t and an average price of £180/t.
The premium for milling wheat has also steadily narrowed and currently stands at just £19/t.
High beef prices drive demand for feed barley
While 2024 was not exactly the best harvest year for barley, recent months have seen an increase in buyer demand for feed barley and wheat, with demand outstripping supply on Hectare Trading as deadweight beef prices briefly broke the 700p/kg barrier in May 2025.
There was exceptional demand for feed barley on Hectare Trading, exceeding supply by 183%. Feed wheat demand was more than triple supply, despite high end-season wheat stocks.
Although the highest demand was for niche crops, demand for linseed outstripped supply by 338%.
Ex-farm spot prices rise against futures
Futures prices have drifted downwards over the quarter, with the UK (ICE) Feed Wheat July 25 contract falling to £159.05/t on 9th June 2025.
However, cash prices have generally held up better than futures. In the Midlands, the ex-farm basis (the difference between the regional ex-farm price and the futures price) has swung markedly over the past year, from -£3 on 9th July 2024 to +£9 on 9th June 2025.
READ MORE: Disease driving wheat variety decisions
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