Goodbye 2020, hello 2021!

Photo credit: Instagram: @IrishPixel – www.garethsquance.com

Normally, I would suggest that we try to control what we know we can control – but 2020 proves that we can’t imagine some of the things we can’t control! So where does that leave us?

I think it means we should plan for the future, based on what we actually know today. So, if I were responsible for farms/land holdings, the following is what I would be thinking about for the coming year.

I would be seriously looking at what crops I was growing, why I was growing them and what my alternatives might be. Is there space to grow an energy crop? Or, even better, secure income and de-risk part of my land by allowing a third party to grow an energy crop on part of the holding?

I would redouble my efforts on planning and alternative uses – we now know that everyone wants a little piece of the countryside to call their own, so you could make the most of that by renting unused barns out for storage, or corners of paddocks out for summer gymnasiums.

The environment continues to come up the agenda. It can be difficult in the UK, with so many overlapping pressures (farming, food, recreation, environment, carbon, biodiversity, water management, wildlife management, sporting, public rights, cultural history etc), but, contrary to what many believe, there are opportunities as well as challenges out there.

There is an increasing understanding that the environment has value, and that there may be ways of incentivising farmers and landowners to ‘up’ the environmental performance of the land in return for payments. This is a well-trodden road – in the 70s, food production was incentivised and farmers responded to grants; in the 90s, farming itself was held dear and supported by Europe; recent years have seen a confusion of multiple pressures, and these have crystallised around carbon and biodiversity for the now.

Focusing on the environment should not rule out more hard-edged alternative uses, such as energy (particularly renewable) – and not just production (solar/wind), but also the transfer of electricity around the grid, with investment in infrastructure rising up the agenda. Minerals also takes its turn alongside infrastructure projects as a land-hungry exercise where those opportunities exist.

So, what would I be doing?

Well, I’d probably be getting my information base completely up-to-speed – the plans of the farm digitalised, the cropping history, spray data and RPA maps downloaded, the magic map (what a fantastic free resource) printed o , downloaded and, if possible, overlayed. Of course, I would be using the Carter Jonas biodiversity calculator and getting up to speed with that – but I would say that, wouldn’t I?

Then, in practice, I would be talking to all of my neighbours – and not only those physically close to me, but those across the county who are farming the same crops, or who are the same size, or even those diametrically opposite and forming clusters together linked by a common interest, whatever that may be. Because that is how the money is going to come down the tree – common approaches to shared problems, reduction of management time through the use of technology, and trusting one another to come up with – and share – solutions.

What about the land market?

If I were a seller, I would get on with it. We know the land market is quite strong now, with low supply pushing prices up. If I were a buyer, I would also get on with it. The rest of the economy is likely to hit hard times and, in those circumstances, agricultural land is normally a safe place to put your capital. 2007–10 saw the strongest growth in agricultural values in the last 20 years, with average arable land values breaking through £10k per acre. I suspect we will see that again.

Some of you will note I have not mentioned the inputs and the overheads or the capital repayments/machinery costs. I hope that, if I was running a farm, those details would have been planned in some time ago, that my trusted agronomist would be getting on with the practical element, that my various contractors would know what they have to do and be incentivised to get it right, and that the legal paperwork would be in place so that, if they don’t, it is their PI and not my bottom line that will suffer. As the owner/manager, my role is to look forward and make sure the strategy for now to at least 2025 is right, but also flexible and, if the cluster of which I am an active member decides to go in a certain direction, that I am able to take advantage.

It sounds like I am looking forward to 2021…

Well, let’s face it, it’s got to be better than 2020!

Wondering what you should be planning for the coming year? Get in touch via mark.russell@ carterjonas.co.uk or 07967 555737