Falling farmland values highlight uncertainty ahead of Autumn Budget

The latest Carter Jonas Farmland Market Update shows an increasing polarisation in values between land and farm sales in its third-quarter figures. 

Well-located commercial farms with competing buyers are still attracting above-guide bids, but for poorer ground or isolated units, sales are proving slow and not generating as much interest. 
The decline in average arable land values accelerated to 1.5%, following a slightly more modest decline of 1.1% in the second quarter of 2025 (Q2), Carter Jonas revealed. 

Similarly, average pasture values declined by 1.2% in Q3, a steeper fall than was recorded in the previous quarter. Average arable and pasture values now stand at £9,556/acre and £7,806/acre, respectively. 

This is the first time land values have declined year on year since Q4 2020 – arable values by 1.7% and pasture by 1.1%. Values had previously grown or remained flat for 17 successive quarters. 

‘Budget is likely to be influencing decision-making’ 

This downwards shift reflects a broader trend of increased buyer hesitancy and a limited buyer pool in some parts of the market. However, there are some exceptions to the rule. 

“Some segments of the farmland market remain resilient,” Andrew Chandler, head of rural agency at Carter Jonas, explained. “This is especially true for ‘best-in-class’ assets which remain scarce and can attract national interest, resulting in a divergence in prices.  

“Well-positioned, high-quality assets continue to command strong values, while secondary and tertiary land is seeing downward adjustments. Crucially, however, overall market performance is contingent on local factors, with supply and demand dynamics varying widely even at the regional level.” 
 
Delays in funding announcements and impending changes to inheritance tax reliefs have further dampened farmers’ confidence, the expert added. 
 
Sophie Davidson, research associate, said: “Speculation that the Autumn Budget will bring further setbacks has prompted some to adopt a ‘wait-and-see’ approach as they await further clarity on the government’s approach to tax and agricultural policy. 
 
“While the Budget has not been widely cited as a reason to sell, it is likely to be influencing decision-making for both buyers and sellers.” 
 
Both policy and economic volatility continue to cloud the market outlook. CPI inflation held firm at 3.8% in August, unchanged from July when it reached its highest level since 2024. 
 
Experts predict the Bank of England will hold the Bank Rate at 4.0% in November, before potentially bringing the rate down to 3.5% by the end of 2025. 
 
“This continues to weigh on investment appetite among those reliant on financing, leaving the market largely sustained by rollover funds and institutional capital,” Ms Davidson added. 

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