Radical changes needed to secure a resilient future for British farming

Mike Rivington, senior scientist at the James Hutton Institute; Laura Lukasik, founder and president of Numen Bio; and Jack Bobo, executive director at UCLA Rothman Family Institute for Food Studies discussed the future of farming, the opportunities for the industry and its potential for growth. 

Mr Rivington said: “Food systems are facing multiple pressures – climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation – against a backdrop of a risk perception deficit, geopolitical uncertainty and economic change.” 

Looking into the future, the expert said that there will be “good years”, however, farmers should prepare for extreme weather events. 

“Learning how we can find that balance between making the best of the conditions when they are good, but dealing with the consequences when they’re bad is going to be a major challenge for us.” 

Mr Rivington, who studies climate change impacts on land use, natural capital and ecosystem services, highlighted that a 2°C warming at a global level will have substantial impacts on how key ecosystems function and natural processes – such as ocean current circulation – influence the climate and the weather we will experience in the future. 

He said that warmer temperatures are likely to drive crops through their growth stages quicker. “A great amount of work is going on within science and learning new varieties that are able to cope with a range of future possibilities,” the expert explained. 

“It is likely that some regions in the UK will, in some years, have favourable growing conditions that increase yields, but my greatest concern is the increasing probability of having two or even three years in a row where agriculture is affected by a range of negative impacts. This will stress-test the economic viability of farm businesses.” 

The expert added that food system transformation is needed for the benefit of the environment and human health. He also added that the narrative should be changed from agriculture being ‘part of the problem to ‘part of the solution’. 

Mr Rivington said: “There needs to be an improved relationship between farmers, the supply chain and the scientific community to develop adaptation responses. 

“One example is the need to change the culture of data sharing to enable science to better develop modelling tools to support real-time management decisions and longer-term strategic planning by farmers.” 

Unlocking farming potential

Ms Lukasik, who founded Latin America’s first agtech start-up in agricultural risk management and now co-develops regenerative portfolios with farmers across Latin America and Africa,  illustrated what future climates mean for agriculture in the UK. 

She said: “Systems don’t change because of technology or regulation. They change when the connections between farmers, science, markets, and institutions finally work. 

“A regenerative economy is not an environmental aspiration – it is an economic redesign.  
It means treating nature as an asset that generates long-term value and farmers as essential partners in managing that asset. 

With many of the required farm-level regeneration adaptations already well known – planting of trees, enhancing soil biology, reducing synthetic inputs, for example – the expert pointed to the systemic barriers hindering adoption, the expert explained. 

“Without a redesigned enabling architecture, farming cannot unlock its full potential. Clearer rules, better access to capital and fairer risk distribution would all help facilitate a more resilient food production system. 

“It is about coherence: governments providing stable rules and capital pathways; science translating into practice; companies taking real risk; academia linking knowledge to adoption; farmers organising to capture value and build resilience; and society recognising the structural role of farmers,” she concluded. 

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‘We’re moving from more to better’

Mr Bobo, who is renowned for bringing an interdisciplinary approach to reshaping food policy and sustainability, highlighted the importance of engaging with consumers. 

He said: “All of the problems we face require collaboration, yet that has never been so difficult. In many ways, the consumer has never cared more nor known less about how their food is produced. This polarisation is one of the greatest challenges; we need to do a better job of communicating with the public. 

Mr Bobo added that disruptions to the supply chain are “inevitable”. “Some of that’s going to be climate risk, but a lot of it’s going to be geopolitical risk. That means optimising systems is not optimising for risk because it makes your systems more fragile. It increases risk; it doesn’t reduce it. 

“You need to have resilient systems because they will be better able to weather these shocks, and that will ensure the longer-term survival. But it’s also just important because the world doesn’t need more stuff. Consumers are going to be willing to pay more for better stuff.” 

He added that farmers need to think about the world in profoundly different ways. “We’re moving from more to better. We exist at that one unique moment in all of human history when we’re moving from more food to better food, and we will never go back,” Mr Bobo explained. 

The expert also emphasised the progress farming has made in recent decades. 

“Undoubtedly the fact that 10% of people go to bed hungry is a disaster. But 30 years ago, 20% of the population was in food poverty. We produce dramatically more food today than we did in 1960 on more or less the same amount of land. Food production has increased faster than population growth, which is why the number of hungry people has declined. 

“That progress has come through radical change, innovation and the adoption of technology. Farms were one of the first places to see self-driving vehicles. In many ways, farmers have always been living in the future.” 

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