Is the UK prepared for food shocks?

What would it look like if the UK were better prepared for food shocks, and farmers fed people, not commodity markets?

This was the question posed by Tim Lang, Professor of Food Policy at City University London, during the Suffolk Farming Conference 2026, which was organised by Fram Farmers, Scrutton Bland and the Suffolk Agricultural Association. 

Despite being billed to talk about climate change, Prof Lang said he wanted to focus much of his talk on findings from the National Preparedness Committee’s ‘Just in Case’ report on food resilience. 

Guyana is the only country in the world that produces all the nutrient categories required for public health, whereas almost every other country depends on some kind of trade, he explained. 

The UK’s National Risk Register, updated early last year, outlines 89 distinct and severe risks that could significantly impact the UK’s safety, security or critical systems – but only one of these is related to food.

“The lack of thinking about food and resilience from shocks is stunning, but it’s very British,” Prof Hughes said, adding that a Treasury official had once asked him: “Why do we need farmers?”

We need to think differently 

The food policy expert was scathing about the government’s advice to store only three days’ worth of food and water, stating it is “not realistic”. Particularly since electricity outages are listed as a major vulnerability in the National Risk Register, and much of the public’s food is stored in the fridge or freezer.

Despite the dystopian flavour of his talk, Prof Hughes said he remains optimistic – but only if we think differently about regionalised, short supply chain routes and building local markets. He called for an infrastructure of local food resilience committees attached to local resilience forums – with farmers and unions involved.

“Many of you are locked into commodity markets, and I understand that, but it’s not working for you; it’s working for the processed food markets, which are a disaster in terms of public health. 

“What would it look like if land actually produced food for people more directly?” he asked. 

“Haves and have nots”

Meanwhile, Professor David Hughes, emeritus professor of food marketing for Imperial College London, reflected that living costs in the UK are among the highest in Europe, but food prices are among the lowest in Western Europe – and consumers are divided into the “haves” and “have nots”.

It is “worrisome and astonishing” that it’s possible to feed a family of four for less than £5, he added, and yet every supermarket has meat ranging in price from £3/kg to £56/kg.  

But it’s not all about price – in the UK we spend an average of just £12 per household per week on fruit, with spend on apples and pears declining, and spend on grapes, fresh berries, easy peel citrus and avocado on the rise. 

Often consumers blame price when asked why they don’t spend more on fruit, but buy regular coffees at perhaps £3.50 per cup. “It doesn’t sit well, does it?” Prof Hughes said, adding that we need to get better at communicating the value of healthy food.

Convenience is sought-after, but so is health

When it comes to food trends, convenience and speed are key for the under-30s. “For better or worse”, this is the direction we’re moving in, Prof Hughes noted.

The retail value of the UK’s ready meal market is £5.3Bn – but consumers are also growing more health-conscious, and there is growing demand for low-fat meat protein, convenient fruit and veg and high-fibre, nutrient-dense food. 

Anti-obesity medications will also have an impact in the next decade. 10% of the US population and 5% of the UK population are taking these drugs, and it’s growing at a pace.

Crop genetics offer a solution

Joking that his talk would be more hopeful than those of the other two opening speakers, Dr Jonathan Clarke, head of business development for John Innes Centre, shared updates on innovations in crop genetics. 

These seek to provide more nutrient-dense food, whilst helping farmers to manage weather and disease challenges.

Latest developments include BOFIN’s PROBITY programme, which has put gene-edited wheat with increased grain size and weight into fields across the UK, to find out if yields increase. 

Another project in Spain is looking to offer temperature-resilient wheat.

Other work includes using plant genetics to increase nitrogen uptake efficiency. A mutation identified in a weed increases the plant’s ability to make an association with a symbiotic fungus in the soil – an effect which can be transferred to wheat, Dr Clarke shared. This is now in the third year of field trials.

John Innes has also brought a last resort legume crop from Ethiopia, which can yield well in high temperatures and drought. It is now almost fully UK-adapted. 

Another project, meanwhile, is awaiting funding to explore whether hemp could be a profitable break crop for farmers, if used to make a bioform product to replace polystyrene. 

Food as preventative medicine 

Additionally, Dr Clarke noted that breeding has skipped over nutritional quality over the years, whereas heritage varieties were much healthier in terms of vitamin and mineral content. 

Genetic editing has facilitated two discoveries: 

• Scientists have increased the amount of iron taken up by peas by binding it with ferritin, making it highly bioavailable. New varieties coming through will soon allow pea shoots to be grown which increase the consumer’s iron levels
• Sunshine tomatoes: These have been engineered to make vitamin D, so rather than taking a supplement with the wrong form of vitamin D, consumers can get this nutrient straight from the tomato. 

Dr Clarke said such discoveries could allow food to become preventative medicine, as well as providing nourishment.

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